The U.S. presidential election never lacks for unexpected twists, but the fates of political rivals Trump and Biden have been turned upside down in the months leading up to 2024, with their continuous creation of history still astonishing. After nearly 50 years of political maneuvering, Biden managed to bypass political obstacles four years ago and successfully achieve his lifelong ambition of becoming president, entering the White House; four years later, the 81-year-old incumbent President Biden's political career suddenly plummeted after a disastrous debate with former President Trump. Recently, Biden, who is 81, has been increasingly abandoned by Democratic allies and donors. In the past three to four weeks, he has faced an overwhelming wave of questioning, with concerns about his stamina and mental state, and he has been losing ground in public opinion polls; there is chaos within the Democratic Party surrounding his departure, with calls for him to withdraw from the election growing louder; some Democratic "sugar daddies" have directly put on hold their campaign funding contributions to Biden; in an effort to prove that he can still perform, Biden has contracted COVID-19 for the third time, ultimately leading to his announcement on July 21 that he is withdrawing from the 2024 presidential race and expressing support for the nomination of Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate. Biden had previously insisted that he would not give up the campaign, but in different settings, he proposed three scenarios in which he would withdraw: the worst public opinion poll results, or if he had some kind of medical condition, or as a devout Catholic, he said that if God asked him to end his campaign, he would do so. On the 21st, Biden issued a statement on social media saying that he had originally intended to seek re-election, but for the best interests of the country and the Democratic Party, he decided to withdraw from the campaign and focus on fulfilling his duties for the remainder of his presidential term. Biden wrote: "Serving as your president has been the greatest honor of my life... Although I have always intended to seek re-election, I believe that withdrawing from the election and focusing on fulfilling my responsibilities as president for the remainder of my term is in the best interests of my country and party." Subsequently, Biden posted on social media to express his full support for the nomination of Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate. He also called on Democrats to unite to defeat the Republican presidential candidate Trump. Most American political experts told "Finance and Economics" that this seemingly sudden decision also has its inevitability. When Biden himself believes that the possibility of defeating his opponent is decreasing and the chance of winning the presidential vote becomes slim, he will put the interests of the country above personal pride and political ambition. The next step is to see how the Democratic Party will play its cards. The U.S. presidential election never lacks for unexpected twists, but the fates of political rivals Trump and Biden have been turned upside down in the months leading up to 2024, with their continuous creation of history still astonishing. Trump has countless scandals, accusations of sexual and financial misconduct, has been impeached twice, faces several criminal investigations and one felony conviction, yet he not only leads Biden in the polls, but after the assassination attempt, his image with blood on his face and a raised fist has become his new rallying force, injecting new vitality into the Republican Party. Most national polls show that Trump consistently leads Biden by 1 to 3 percentage points. According to the poll data compiled by the U.S. election information website "Real Clear Politics," as of the 18th, Trump leads Biden by an average of 3 percentage points in the national polls. More importantly, Biden seems to be lagging behind Trump in the seven so-called "swing states" of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A recent poll released by Emerson College shows that Biden is behind Trump in these seven states, with a gap of at least 3 percentage points, and in Arizona, the gap is 10 percentage points. The political key to the U.S. presidential election is that having a leading advantage in key battleground states can win another four-year presidential term starting in January of the following year. If Trump wins in this year's election, he will continue to create history - in the modern history of the United States, no former president has run for president again after failing to be re-elected. The last president to successfully do so was Grover Cleveland, who failed to be re-elected in 1884 but won again in 1892. Democrats have spent the past few weeks focusing on arguing whether Biden should stay or go. More than 30 Democratic lawmakers have publicly called for Biden to withdraw from the race. According to U.S. media reports, Democratic heavyweights such as former President Obama, former House Speaker Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Schumer have also expressed concern about the Democratic election situation. Some are even plotting how to force Biden to step down. The Democratic Party is thus in chaos, and this chaos will not dissipate immediately because of Biden's withdrawal. The urgent task facing Democrats is to find a way forward while also having a competitive process to decide on a replacement nominee. In contrast, the Trump campaign team is more optimistic about the prospects of victory. As the number of criminal prosecutions against Trump increases, Republicans are increasingly uniting behind Trump. After the assassination shooting incident, Trump, with blood on his face but still defiant, has united Republicans with his tough guy image, and their fervor for supporting Trump has reached a new dimension. States such as Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, where Trump was not very hopeful before, have also shown some encouraging signs. Trump's running mate, 39-year-old Ohio Senator Vance, is a staunch populist. If Trump and Vance win in November, Vance is expected to become the successor of Trumpism. Vance is expected to focus on campaigning in the three so-called "blue wall states" of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which were previously dominated by Democrats but later attracted white working-class voters more successfully by Trump. The serious divisions within the party over its candidate will not be healed by Biden's support for Harris, and at least it remains to be seen whether the Democrats can reach a consensus on the candidate internally. Previously, some senior Democrats hoped to determine the Democratic presidential candidate through an open competition. Many Democrats believe that this is one of the most important elections of their lives. Biden's campaign team called for a debate in June, hoping to force voters to pay attention to the campaign earlier than usual. However, Biden's continued expression of his intention to run has backfired on this strategy. Who will be the Democratic standard-bearer in the U.S. election on November 5th is the biggest question mark. When calling for Biden to withdraw from the campaign, his deputy campaign manager Quentin Fulks told the media that the Biden campaign team did not have any plans to deal with the situation where Biden was not the preferred nominee. Biden had originally expected to accept the Democratic nomination at the national convention in Chicago next month, but now that Biden has prematurely ended his candidacy, Harris has effectively become the Democratic standard-bearer. Harris, who is now 59 years old, has her biggest advantage in her experience as vice president. Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, she has been the spokesperson for the Biden administration's support for abortion rights, and her stance will win the support of women and young people. Harris was the attorney general of California and a federal senator. In 2018, her questioning of then-Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh during the confirmation hearing caught the attention of the national media. Harris ran for president in 2020 and confronted Biden on his opposition to "busing" during the primary debate. She ended her campaign before the Iowa primary, becoming the first event on the primary calendar that year. Democrats have been quietly testing head-to-head polls between Harris and Trump, and Vice President Harris sometimes performs better than Biden, even slightly leading Trump. Biden supports Vice President Harris in running for the next U.S. president and says that his choice of her as vice president has always been his best decision. Although she has a high profile, her low approval ratings during her tenure have been a torment for her. Some Democrats say that an open convention should be held and a candidate should be selected from several candidates. Competing with Harris is Michigan Governor Whitmer. Whitmer, who is 52 years old, was previously a state legislator, served in the state House and Senate, and was the minority leader of the Michigan Senate for four years. She is the vice chair of the Democratic National Committee and has passed progressive priority policies in Michigan, including protecting abortion and gun safety measures. Whitmer's biggest advantage is her appeal in Michigan. Trump won Michigan in 2016, and Biden won it back in 2020, making it a very key swing state in the U.S. election. Whitmer won the elections in 2018 and 2022 by more than 9 percentage points. Whitmer is increasingly popular among Midwestern Democrats, who predict that she will run for president in 2028. California Governor Newsom is highly regarded within the Democratic Party and is seen as one of the strongest spokespeople for the Democrats. Newsom's electoral performance, political experience, and strong network within the Democratic Party are unmatched by the other candidates. Now 56 years old, Newsom's influence in California, the state with the largest economy and population in the United States, is very solid. Newsom has served as the mayor of San Francisco, the lieutenant governor of California, and the governor. As a seasoned politician, he was once seen as a very competitive Democratic presidential candidate, but factors such as political polarization and fierce bipartisan competition led him to decide not to run in the 2024 election and instead choose to support Biden. Newsom occasionally attracts the national spotlight, from debating with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Fox News to establishing a federal political action committee in 2023 to "combat the growing authoritarianism." In addition, Buttigieg, who is 42 years old and from South Bend, Indiana, is also a contender. He ran for president in 2020 and performed well in the Iowa caucuses, almost winning the New Hampshire primary. In 2021, he was nominated and confirmed as the Secretary of Transportation. He was elected mayor in 2012 and served until 2020. Buttigieg has helped guide the federal government in responding to various crises, including the collapse of the Baltimore Bridge and the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, and so on. Buttigieg has won the respect of Democrats for conveying Biden's message to conservative media outlets such as Fox News, and has been praised for his ability to convey Biden's priorities. If elected, Buttigieg would become the first openly gay president of the United States. Pennsylvania is another important swing state, which voted for Trump in 2016 but turned to support Biden in 2020. Shapiro, who is 51 years old, is the governor of Pennsylvania, and his approval ratings have remained high since his election in 2022. Shapiro has served as the state's attorney general and has handled bipartisan matters during his tenure. His biggest advantage is that he can bring demographic diversity and strong election results to an important swing state. Shapiro was praised by both parties last year for handling the collapse of a bridge on a major highway - Interstate 95 leading to Philadelphia. The repair was expected to take several months, but temporary lanes were opened in less than two weeks, and he gained national attention for this, which was also an important political victory in his first term as governor.
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